I’m so late to get these picks out that two of the games have already gone, I also have no time so no chat today just PICKS AND RANKS!!
I’ve been meaning to write this up all day and I keep getting sidetracked as this is the busiest week of all time. Any free time I’ve had has been put into writing a dang algorithm for a party this weekend (don’t ask, its even nerdier than you would imagine). So lets waste no time and get to the picks!
Another week, another set of the bad guys winning. The Chiefs, Raiders and, of course, the Patriots all won games taking them towards the playoffs, leaving the Broncos, Panthers and (i guess) the Jets to try and do the numbers to work out whether they can still make the playoffs. The answer is ‘Yes, yes, no’, or more accurately, ‘maybe, almost certainly not, definitely not’.
Anyway, to the stuff:
Let me be around the median of people who have wished you a happy Thanksgiving. This year I’m thankful for the unrelenting trash that has come out of world politics and OSX for not letting me use Matplotlib in a virtualenv which makes this whole NFL pick thing significantly harder.
In the NFL this week, the Chiefs have been handed a well deserved L and rightfully taken their place nearer mid table, and the Panthers have taken their first step into almost being in playoff contention. Again, too much prefacing, lets go to the picks!
I’m back to give some more uninformed picks! I’m currently in my office trying to get my code to recognise the large scale structure of the universe (which is easier than it sounds, but I’m finding it harder than it probably is). So I don’t quite have the time to go over last weeks picks. They seemed to do alright, my only worry was that my desire for the model to work was making me support teams I didn’t like in the hopes that the status quo was preserved. TeBOW has turned me into a monster.
This week I have added in the capacity for the model to simulate the rest of the season, which means that I can start to give percentage chances for teams to get to the playoffs. Very literally I am coding these features minutes before I put them up here so if something weird happens then blame me, but also include a bit of pity in your scorn. I had to get this out before NO/CAR! The battle of the “should be in playoffs but pretty unlucky”
Anyway, enough of the foreshadowing, lets go for the 1000th power rankings you’ve read this week!
America, statisticians and the world at large have had a pretty crappy week. What better week then to introduce my overly simplistic statistical model to attempt to predict the outcome of American Football games, TeBOW!
TrueSkill (extended) Based On Wins.
The model takes only the outcome of games that have happened and manages to calculate the rating and consistency of a given team. This allows us to do two things, firstly we can power rank the teams based on their games so far and also we can make predictions about the future games that are going to happen. Every week until the end of the season I will publish the power rankings on a Monday, and then the predictions on a Thursday.
TeBOW is so-called as not only is Tim Tebow a meme and I’m addicted to those page views, but also the model completely ignores any potentially relevant information about the performance of the team, pass yardage, interceptions, etc. All TeBOW cares about is wins no matter what, and I think this is fair to his legacy.