Let me be around the median of people who have wished you a happy Thanksgiving. This year I’m thankful for the unrelenting trash that has come out of world politics and OSX for not letting me use Matplotlib in a virtualenv which makes this whole NFL pick thing significantly harder.
In the NFL this week, the Chiefs have been handed a well deserved L and rightfully taken their place nearer mid table, and the Panthers have taken their first step into almost being in playoff contention. Again, too much prefacing, lets go to the picks!
Week 12 Power Rankings
|team||TeBOW||change this week||chance of making playoffs||probability of beating SEA|
|New England Patriots||27.74||+0.21||96.2%||43.4%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||27.52||-1.12||79.8%||41.9%|
|New York Giants||26.06||+0.34||59.4%||32.1%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||24.59||+1.07||15.4%||23.3%|
|New Orleans Saints||24.37||-0.53||7.6%||22.1%|
|Los Angeles Rams||24.06||-0.47||1.6%||20.4%|
|Green Bay Packers||23.76||-0.42||3.2%||19.0%|
|New York Jets||23.67||0.0||0.0%||18.6%|
|San Diego Chargers||23.58||0.0||0.2%||18.1%|
|San Francisco 49ers||21.45||-0.22||0.0%||10.0%|
As I said above, the real mover this week was the Chiefs, who have lost a whole 1.2 TeBOWs, which is by far the biggest swing this week, with the Bucs (who beat them) gaining the points they’d lost. They have jumped up to a 15% chance of reaching the playoffs, which would be awesome.
The Cardinals are seeing themselves being nearly knocked out of playoff contention as they are incredibly unlikely to beat the Seahawks to the top of the NFC West, and have a losing record so unlikely to snag a Wildcard spot. However they should be thanking their lucky stars they arent in the AFC.
The AFC West is absolutely WILD. The Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders are 3rd, 4th and 6th respectively, yet the Chiefs and Broncos have a relatively low chance of making the postseason, given their records of 7-2. This is due to the fact that only one of those teams can get the AFC West title, and the other two will be fighting with the Dolphins, and one of the Steelers/Ravens for the two wildcard places. Their chances are further pushed down by the fact that they will be playing each other this week, in what could easily be the kingmaker and is a total toss up. THE NFL IS ACTUALLY EXCITING THIS YEAR!
Week 12 Picks
|matchup||predicted result||playoff chances if away wins||playoff chances if home wins|
|minnesota vikings @ detroit lions||MIN: 47.6% , DET: 52.4%||MIN 84.0% / DET 48.0%||MIN 51.0% / DET 83.0%|
|washington @ dallas cowboys||WAS: 46.1% , DAL: 53.9%||WAS 73.0% / DAL 97.0%||WAS 46.0% / DAL 100.0%|
|pittsburgh steelers @ indianapolis colts||PIT: 48.7% , IND: 51.3%||PIT 68.0% / IND 14.0%||PIT 62.0% / IND 18.0%|
|san diego chargers @ houston texans||SD: 33.1% , HOU: 66.9%||SD 1.0% / HOU 73.0%||SD 0.0% / HOU 90.0%|
|cincinnati bengals @ baltimore ravens||CIN: 54.2% , BAL: 45.8%||CIN 17.0% / BAL 18.0%||CIN 5.0% / BAL 39.0%|
|jacksonville jaguars @ buffalo bills||JAC: 21.2% , BUF: 78.8%||JAC 0.0% / BUF 6.0%||JAC 0.0% / BUF 17.0%|
|new york giants @ cleveland browns||NYG: 88.6% , CLE: 11.4%||NYG 76.0% / CLE 0.0%||NYG 46.0% / CLE 0.0%|
|los angeles rams @ new orleans saints||LA: 47.8% , NO: 52.2%||LA 2.0% / NO 6.0%||LA 0.0% / NO 9.0%|
|san francisco 49ers @ miami dolphins||SF: 21.2% , MIA: 78.8%||SF 0.0% / MIA 32.0%||SF 0.0% / MIA 49.0%|
|arizona cardinals @ atlanta falcons||ARI: 55.1% , ATL: 44.9%||ARI 4.0% / ATL 67.0%||ARI 2.0% / ATL 87.0%|
|tennessee titans @ chicago bears||TEN: 52.6% , CHI: 47.4%||TEN 2.0% / CHI 0.0%||TEN 0.0% / CHI 0.0%|
|seattle seahawks @ tampa bay buccaneers||SEA: 76.7% , TB: 23.3%||SEA 100.0% / TB 19.0%||SEA 97.0% / TB 33.0%|
|kansas city chiefs @ denver broncos||KC: 51.9% , DEN: 48.1%||KC 93.0% / DEN 58.0%||KC 61.0% / DEN 90.0%|
|carolina panthers @ oakland raiders||CAR: 42.6% , OAK: 57.4%||CAR 12.0% / OAK 83.0%||CAR 9.0% / OAK 96.0%|
|new england patriots @ new york jets||NE: 76.6% , NYJ: 23.4%||NE 96.0% / NYJ 0.0%||NE 93.0% / NYJ 0.0%|
|green bay packers @ philadelphia eagles||GB: 41.6% , PHI: 58.4%||GB 8.0% / PHI 8.0%||GB 0.0% / PHI 12.0%|
The Thanksgiving games this year are totally awesome. All three of them within a few percentage points of being a coin-flip so they should be great games, and they all matter! The win for either Detroit or Minnesota would mean their playoff hopes turn into more of an expectation, with a 30% swing in their playoff chances. Dallas can basically seal the deal on the playoffs with a win over Washington, which would push WAS into ‘coin-flip’ region of playoff hopes. It actually seems like the PIT/IND game is fairly inconsequential, but I’m British so I’ll probably be asleep by then anyway. So that might be the time to start talking to your relatives.
On Sunday, the game that stands out is DENvsKC, the winner is a coinflip and the winner is almost guaranteed to make it into the postseason. This is the one that got changed to the night game because the jets suck so much this year.
Duds of the Week: Saints/Rams (Rams are hard to watch and little playoff consequences), Giants/Browns (Giants/Browns), Titans/Bears (Neither in contention), Pats/Jets (walkover)
Spicyboys of the Week: Broncos/Chiefs (see above), Panthers/Raiders (great teams, playoff implications too), The first two thanksgiving games, Seahawks/Buccaneers (Are the Buccaneers giant killers?)