I’m back to give some more uninformed picks! I’m currently in my office trying to get my code to recognise the large scale structure of the universe (which is easier than it sounds, but I’m finding it harder than it probably is). So I don’t quite have the time to go over last weeks picks. They seemed to do alright, my only worry was that my desire for the model to work was making me support teams I didn’t like in the hopes that the status quo was preserved. TeBOW has turned me into a monster.
This week I have added in the capacity for the model to simulate the rest of the season, which means that I can start to give percentage chances for teams to get to the playoffs. Very literally I am coding these features minutes before I put them up here so if something weird happens then blame me, but also include a bit of pity in your scorn. I had to get this out before NO/CAR! The battle of the “should be in playoffs but pretty unlucky”
Anyway, enough of the foreshadowing, lets go for the 1000th power rankings you’ve read this week!
Power Rankings, Week 11
|name||TeBOW||chance of making playoffs||probability of beating KC|
|Kansas City Chiefs||28.64||96.2%||50.0%|
|New England Patriots||27.53||97.0%||42.1%|
|New York Giants||25.72||70.6%||30.0%|
|New Orleans Saints||24.90||20.8%||25.2%|
|Los Angeles Rams||24.53||5.0%||23.0%|
|Green Bay Packers||24.18||6.4%||21.3%|
|New York Jets||23.67||0.0%||18.8%|
|San Diego Chargers||23.58||0.4%||18.3%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||23.52||5.0%||18.0%|
|San Francisco 49ers||21.67||0.0%||10.7%|
God I hate the Chiefs. Their name isn’t Washington level racist but its pretty bad, their quarterback is the anti-Aaron Rodgers and also they’re in the same division as my beloved Denver Broncos, and could quite possibly kick us out of the playoffs. Anyway, my model really likes them. I have included a column to show what the chances are of each of the other teams beating the current highest rank team to show that although there is a significant spread between skills of teams, the nature of the NFL is that no team is ever truly ruled out of a game.
What else sucks about this graph? The poor Panthers. The Giants and Dolphins, their two nearest skill neighbours have playoff probabilities of 70% and 30%, whereas the Panthers are stuck on 7%. I am dreaming that Cam Newton can turn that 7 into a 100, but maybe even he doesn’t have that level of magic.
I also think the model is underestimating the Raiders , and overestimating the Texans. This is potentially as it is putting too much credence in last year’s record, but who knows, am I trying to say I know more about football than an algorithm designed for Halo? That’s messed up.
We also don’t believe in the Cowboys yet. Thats a spicy take. It seems they don’t face any real challenge for the rest of the season based on their schedule, so lets see!
Picks, Week 11
This week I have included playoff implications, so the playoff probabilities of the teams in the circumstance they win and in the one they lose. These were trained off of 100 simulations each so the ± on the predictions is pretty high and should be taken with salt, but until one of you wonderful people decide to buy me a dedicated cluster like the guys at fivethirtyeight presumably have you’re going to have to deal with some shot noise.
|matchup||predicted result||playoff chances if away wins||playoff chances if home wins|
|new orleans saints @ carolina panthers||NO: 44.9% , CAR: 55.1%||NO 36.0% / CAR 3.0%||NO 16.0% / CAR 9.0%|
|buffalo bills @ cincinnati bengals||BUF: 49.7% , CIN: 50.3%||BUF 13.0% / CIN 15.0%||BUF 6.0% / CIN 25.0%|
|baltimore ravens @ dallas cowboys||BAL: 31.9% , DAL: 68.1%||BAL 63.0% / DAL 96.0%||BAL 31.0% / DAL 100.0%|
|pittsburgh steelers @ cleveland browns||PIT: 83.6% , CLE: 16.4%||PIT 48.0% / CLE 0.0%||PIT 31.0% / CLE 0.0%|
|tennessee titans @ indianapolis colts||TEN: 36.1% , IND: 63.9%||TEN 5.0% / IND 3.0%||TEN 0.0% / IND 10.0%|
|tampa bay buccaneers @ kansas city chiefs||TB: 18.1% , KC: 81.9%||TB 10.0% / KC 91.0%||TB 4.0% / KC 98.0%|
|arizona cardinals @ minnesota vikings||ARI: 59.2% , MIN: 40.8%||ARI 40.0% / MIN 30.0%||ARI 10.0% / MIN 58.0%|
|jacksonville jaguars @ detroit lions||JAC: 19.7% , DET: 80.3%||JAC 0.0% / DET 60.0%||JAC 0.0% / DET 72.0%|
|chicago bears @ new york giants||CHI: 28.1% , NYG: 71.9%||CHI 1.0% / NYG 55.0%||CHI 0.0% / NYG 77.0%|
|miami dolphins @ los angeles rams||MIA: 56.6% , LA: 43.4%||MIA 41.0% / LA 2.0%||MIA 29.0% / LA 13.0%|
|philadelphia eagles @ seattle seahawks||PHI: 29.5% , SEA: 70.5%||PHI 48.0% / SEA 87.0%||PHI 16.0% / SEA 100.0%|
|new england patriots @ san francisco 49ers||NE: 85.2% , SF: 14.8%||NE 99.0% / SF 0.0%||NE 89.0% / SF 0.0%|
|green bay packers @ washington||GB: 35.3% , WAS: 64.7%||GB 17.0% / WAS 40.0%||GB 5.0% / WAS 61.0%|
|houston texans @ oakland raiders||HOU: 50.2% , OAK: 49.8%||HOU 98.0% / OAK 69.0%||HOU 89.0% / OAK 83.0%|
In summary: Duds of the week: Tennesee/Indianapolis (minimal playoff implications), Jacksonville/Lions (walk over), Pittsburgh/Cleveland (The Browns)
Spicy games of the week: Saints/Panthers (one last chance for CAR?), Arizona/Vikings (30% swing on Arizona’s playoff chances), Houston/Oakland (within 0.2% of each other, 9% & 14% swing in playoff chances. This is the game)